My PGA DFS journey in 2026 has been a bit of a bumpy ride so far, with three weeks of losses! But don't worry, my inevitable win in the $200 SE is just around the corner. This week, we're diving into the Waste Management Phoenix Open, affectionately known as The People's Open, a fan favorite for its incredibly lively atmosphere. It's a week that often competes with the Super Bowl for attention, so here's hoping DraftKings lines up some fantastic contests for us! While the ETR Golf community has had some recent successes, I believe we can aim even higher for the remainder of the season. And here's a thought that might surprise you: I've heard whispers that Data Golf, a seemingly reliable source, might actually be a less-than-ideal data provider for golf. Who would have thought, right?
Farmers Insurance – A Look Back
The Farmers Insurance Open was far from my worst lottery performance; in fact, it might have been my best week of 2026 so far. Now, that's not saying much, as I still ended up down -65%. Such is the nature of the lottery, and it's crucial to understand that I pursue these tournaments with the sole aim of winning first place. Many players in DFS adopt strategies that don't sufficiently differentiate them from the crowd when competing against seasoned pros. Your approach to building a Multi-Entry (MME) set or a single lineup should be dictated by your bankroll and overall objectives. Those with larger bankrolls can afford to stick to solid projections with minimal differentiation, as they are better equipped to weather the inevitable downswings. They possess the confidence for a long-term, albeit potentially smaller, Return on Investment (ROI). This is where I believe a significant edge in DFS lies – you just have to play like it!
Let's take a peek at the winning lineup from the Farmers Insurance Open and its key characteristics:
- The lineup featured a 9/9/8/7/7/7 build, a common structure for lineups that chose to fade (not select) top-tier players like Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay. Interestingly, it also included Chris Gotterup, whom I completely faded. While he wasn't strictly necessary for the win, it highlights how the other high-priced players performed that he managed to sneak into the winning combination.
- The lineup's cumulative ownership was 86%. Honestly, for the size of the field and the top prize in the lottery, this is a bit on the higher side. Kudos to Jade and Tanner for their success with 300 lineups.
I'm really hoping we see a return to weeks where more unconventional roster constructions take home the top prize. The thought of golf DFS becoming as predictable and unoriginal as NFL DFS is something I'd rather avoid!
Waste Management Phoenix Open – A Sneak Peek
Now, let's shift our focus to the Waste Management Phoenix Open, which often feels like the PGA Tour's warm-up act for the main season. Held annually on Super Bowl weekend, the WM is renowned for being the biggest party in golf. The iconic stadium par 3 hole is a spectacle unlike any other, and I'm sure it will be buzzing with excitement, especially with the return of Brooks Koepka, a two-time champion here. Located in Scottsdale, Arizona, at TPC Scottsdale, this tournament generally presents a fairly standard challenge for the PGA Tour field. Here’s a look at the past five winners and their scores:
- 2025: Thomas Detry (-24) defeated Daniel Berger and Michael Kim by a commanding seven strokes.
- 2024: Nick Taylor (-21) secured victory over Charley Hoffman in a playoff.
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19) triumphed over Nick Taylor by two strokes.
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) edged out Patrick Cantlay in a playoff.
- 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19) narrowly beat Xander Schauffele and KH Lee by just one stroke.
We can definitely expect some impressive scoring at this event. Will it reach extraordinary levels? Probably not. It's worth noting that, with the exception of Thomas Detry last year, the winning scores have been quite consistent with the course's average challenge. Of course, I wouldn't be shocked if Scottie Scheffler dominates again, but golf is inherently a sport of variability.
DraftKings is once again offering a $200,000 prize for first place in their lottery contest, so a big thank you to them for providing such exciting opportunities to kick off the year. I anticipate these contests will only grow in scale as we approach major events like The Players Championship and, of course, The Masters. Given the typical lottery field size and the 120-player field in the actual tournament, we shouldn't need to overthink cumulative ownership rules, despite last week's winner having a slightly higher percentage. My preference is to stay within the optimal range each week and maintain a long-term perspective on cumulative ownership, rather than overreacting to single-week results. I'll generally aim for the 60-80% range for cumulative ownership, but I'll certainly have some lineups in the 50s as well.
But here's where it gets controversial: Is the pursuit of unique roster constructions truly the key to winning, or is it a distraction from solid fundamental play? Some might argue that focusing too much on avoiding chalk (popular plays) can lead to missing out on strong, high-upside golfers. What are your thoughts? Do you prioritize differentiation above all else, or do you believe in riding the wave of popular, well-projected plays? Let me know in the comments below – I'm eager to hear your perspectives!
